The three tiers, defined honestly
A likely school is one where your GPA and test scores sit above the published middle-50% range, the acceptance rate is high, and — this is the part people skip — you have run the net price calculator and confirmed your family can pay. Two or three of these is enough, but they have to be real. A school you would attend resentfully is not doing the job.
A target school is one where your profile sits inside the middle 50% and the acceptance rate is moderate. This is where most of your applications should go, four to six of them, because this is the tier where your effort on essays and demonstrated interest actually changes the outcome.
A reach is any school admitting under roughly 20% of applicants, and for schools under 10% you should treat admission as essentially random among qualified applicants. Apply to two or three if you want, write them well, and do not build any part of your plan around them.
Look up the right numbers
University-wide acceptance rates mislead badly at schools that admit by college or major. Carnegie Mellon admits about 11% overall but its School of Computer Science admits in the low single digits. UT Austin's 29% overall rate coexists with automatic admission for top-6% Texas residents and far tougher odds for everyone else. Michigan's Ross School of Business requires separate preferred admission. Find the number for the program you actually want.
Also check whether internal transfer between majors is possible. Cal Poly San Luis Obispo admits by major and changing internally is genuinely difficult, which means your application decision commits you more than it would elsewhere. Carnegie Mellon generally does not allow transfer into its computer science school after enrolment. These constraints should shape which major you apply under.
Finally, look at the six-year graduation rate and, if you are Pell-eligible, the Pell graduation rate specifically. A school where Pell students graduate several points below the overall rate is telling you something meaningful about the support you would receive.
Early decision: the real trade-off
Early decision offers a genuine statistical advantage at many selective private universities, sometimes a substantial one. It is also binding: if admitted, you must withdraw your other applications and attend, which means you commit before you can compare financial aid offers.
That makes early decision straightforwardly good for families who can pay full price or who have run the net price calculator and are confident in the result, and risky for families who need to compare aid packages. Early action, by contrast, is non-binding and carries almost no downside — apply early action wherever it is offered.
If you do apply early decision and the aid package is genuinely unaffordable, you can be released from the commitment on financial grounds. But this is an unpleasant process to rely on, and 'unaffordable' is judged partly by the college.
